Core U.S. interests in Asia—protecting the homeland and economic access—require far less forward military presence than currently maintained.
Shifting the U.S. posture from the vulnerable first island chain to the more defensible second island chain would reduce American military requirements and the risk of a war with China while still protecting U.S. interests.
Read the newest Defense Priorities explainer by Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis Jennifer Kavanagh: “A second island chain strategy for Asia.”
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Most U.S. personnel in East Asia are stationed along the first island chain. Moving them to the second island chain would make their positions more defensible while reducing the risk of a catastrophic war with China.
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- The United States has two core interests in Asia worth protecting with military power: defending the U.S. homeland and safeguarding access to key economic markets and trade routes. The first priority requires little in the way of a forward military presence while the second benefits from a modest air and naval presence to hedge against outcomes that would threaten U.S. interests.
- A strategy that shifts U.S. military commitments and presence from the vulnerable “first island chain” toward a more defensible “second island chain” would reduce U.S. military requirements and the risk of a war with China while still protecting U.S. interests.
- The United States should narrow its defense commitments in the region, shifting to a clear non-intervention position on Taiwan, ending mutual defense alliances with South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Japan, and negotiating narrower and flexible security partnerships in their place. U.S. military posture should change accordingly.
- The United States should remove most Army and Marine Corps deployments from Asia and cut air and naval power significantly. The remaining U.S. forces should be consolidated at more survivable bases farther from China’s coast and tasked with securing U.S. economic interests and signaling continued U.S. involvement in the Pacific region.
- The United States should provide a clear plan of its intentions and communicate carefully with its allies and China. Changes should be phased over a period of three to eight years, with most changes complete by 2030 and all finalized by 2035.
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